The intimidated chickens problem
(Saad Mneimneh and Alexey Nikolaev)
The 2017 Raytheon Mathcounts National Competition contained the following question: In a barn, 100 chicks sit peacefully in a cricle. Suddenly, each chick randomly pecks the chick immediately to its left or right. What is the expected number of unpecked chickens? (the answer is 100/4=25) This question inspired the intimidated chickens problem:
Consider $n$ chickens sitting in a row. Each chicken is oriented to
look either to the left or to the right. We say that chicken $i$ is
intimidated iff chickens $i-1$ and $i+1$ are both looking at it. A
good orientation of the chickens is one in which no chicken is
intimidated (the second chicken below is intimidated).

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This interesting formulation is related to a famous sequence known as
the quarter-squares: $a_n=\lfloor n/2\rfloor\lceil n/2\rceil=\lfloor
n^2/4\rfloor$, for $n\geq 0$:
$$0, 0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 12, 16, 20, 25, 30, 36, 42, 49, 56, 64, 72, 81,
90, 100, 110, 121, 132, 144, \ldots$$
It turns out that the number of good orientations is $g_n=a_{n+2},
n\geq 0$. To derive this result, think of a binary word $b_1b_2\ldots
b_n$, where $0$ represents left and $1$ represents right. As such, we
must have $b_i\leq b_{i+2}$. So each of the sequences $b_1,b_3,\ldots$
and $b_2,b_4,\ldots$ must be non-decreasing, i.e. must switch from $0$
to $1$ at most once. Therefore, there are $\lceil n/2\rceil+1=\lceil
(n+2)/2\rceil$ and $\lfloor n/2\rfloor+1=\lfloor (n+2)/2\rfloor$
possible sequences, respectively. By the product rule, this gives
$a_{n+2}$.
Another interesting way to derive this result is to first establish
the recurrence $g_n=2g_{n-1}-2g_{n-3}+g_{n-4}$, by emphasizing the
start of the binary pattern:
$$g_n=\underline{0}g_{n-1}+[\underline{1}g_{n-1}
-\underline{100}g_{n-3}-(\underline{110}g_{n-3}-\underline{1100}g_{n-4})]$$
The characteristic equation of the above recurrence is
$x^4-2x^3+2x-1=0$, which is the same as $(x-1)^3(x+1)=0$ with
solutions $p=q=r=1$ and $s=-1$, resulting in
$g_n=c_1(1)^n+c_2n(1)^n+c_3n^2(1)^n+c_4(-1)^n$. Given $g_0=1$,
$g_1=2$, $g_2=4$, and $g_3=6$, we get $g_n=n+[7+2n^2+(-1)^n]/8$,
which can be shown to be $a_{n+2}$ (e.g. by induction).
For large $n$, if each chicken is randomly oriented to the left or to
the right with equal probability, then the probability of a good
orientation is approximately given by the following cool expression
(this is exact when $n$ is even, and overshoots by $1/2^{n+2}$ when
$n$ is odd): $$\frac{(n+2)^2}{2^{n+2}}$$
The circular version of this problem is not very interesting, with the
number of good orientations $c_0=1$, and for $n>0$, $c_n=2$ if $n$ is
odd (all chickens face the same direction), and $c_n=4$ if $n$ is even
(chickens with the same parity, i.e. either even numbered or odd
numbered, face the same direction). However, the expected number of
intimidated chickens does not change dramatically, $n/4$ in the
circular case compared to $(n-2)/4$ in the linear case. It can be
shown that $c_n=g_n-4g_{n-3}+3g_{n-4}$, so $a_n-4a_{n-3}+3a_{n-4}$ is
either $2$ or $4$, which can be verified in the above sequence.
Here is another related problem: Given the set of integers
$\{1,2,\ldots,n\}$, select $k$ integers in such a way that no two of
them have a difference of exactly $2$. Let $A_{n,k}$ be the number of
ways we can do that. It is not hard to establish the following
recurrence (based on how we select in the subset $\{1,2\}$):
$$A_{n,k}=A_{n-1,k}+A_{n-3,k-1}+A_{n-4,k-2}$$
which can be used to compute $A_{n,k}$ for several values of $n$ and
$k$. We can then observe that $A_{2n,n}$ is also equal to
$a_{n+2}$. Therefore,
$$A_{2n,n}=g_n=\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n-2,k}2^{n-2k}(-1)^k=2^n\sum_{k\geq
0}A_{n-2,k}\Big(-\frac{1}{4}\Big)^k=a_{n+2}$$
where $\lfloor n/2\rfloor$ can be used as a practical upprer bound for
$k$ ($n-2k\geq 0$). The second equality is given by the principle of
inclusion and exclusion, where we subtract from $2^n$ (when $k=0$) the
number of orientations with at least one intimidated chicken:
$2^{n-2k}$ counts the number of orientations that intimidate a given
fixed set of $k$ chickens, and $A_{n-2,k}$ counts the number of such
sets (two intimidated chickens cannot be at a distance of exactly $2$,
and the first and last chickens cannot be intimidated).
In fact, we can solve for $A_{n,k}$ and show that
$A_{2n,n}=a_{n+2}$. A valid selection of $k$ integers in
$\{1,2,\ldots,n\}$ defines runs of consecutive integers. Observe that
every run must contain either $1$ or $2$ integers. If the total number
of runs is $r$, then $k-r$ of these must have size $2$, and so there
are $C_{k-r}^r$ ways of choosing those runs. The remaining $n-k$
integers (which were not selelected) form $r+1$ gaps between runs, the
lengths of which can be described by the following equation:
$$l_0+l_1+\ldots+l_{r-1}+l_r=n-k$$ where $l_1,\ldots,l_{r-1}\geq 2$,
and $l_0,l_r\geq 0$. The number of non-negative integer solutions for
this equation is $C_r^{n-k-r+2}$, given by a standard counting method
as long as $0\leq r\leq n-k+2$. Therefore, $$A_{n,k}=\sum_{0\leq r\leq
n-k+2} C_{k-r}^rC_r^{n-k-r+2}$$
Observe that the practical lower and upper bounds for $r$ in $A_{n,k}$
are $\lceil k/2\rceil$ ($r\geq k-r$) and $\min\{k,\lfloor
(n-k)/2\rfloor +1\}$ ($k-r\geq 0$ and $n-k-r+2\geq r$), respectively.
Therefore, to compute $A_{2n,n}=\sum_r C_{n-r}^rC_r^{n-r+2}$, we may
use: $$A_{2n,n}=\sum_{r=\lceil n/2\rceil}^{\lfloor n/2\rfloor+1}
C_{n-r}^rC_r^{n-r+2}$$
When $n$ is odd, the sum contains one term. When $n$ is even, it
contains two terms. By expanding the binomial coefficients in every
term, $A_{2n,n}$ simplifies to $(n+1)(n+3)/4$ when $n$ is odd, and
$(n+2)^2/4$ when $n$ is even, which is $\lfloor
(n+2)^2/4\rfloor=a_{n+2}$ for every $n$.
Given the solution for $A_{n,k}$, we can now write:
$$g_n=2^n\sum_{k=0}^{\lfloor n/2\rfloor} \sum_{r=\lceil
k/2\rceil}^{\min\{k,\lfloor (n-k)/2\rfloor\}}
C_{k-r}^rC_r^{n-k-r}\Big(-\frac{1}{4}\Big)^k$$
The bounds can be relaxed; for instance, when $r$ is bounded, we can
make $k\geq 0$, and similarly, when $k$ is bounded, we can make $r\geq
0$ (all values of $r$ are safe since anomalies arise when $n-k-r\leq
-1$ and $0\leq k-r\leq r$, which would make $k>n/2$). The following
figure illustrates three areas for $(k,r)$: green is needed, red must
be avoided, and white makes no difference (green and red include
their boundaries).

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An interesting observation is that $\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n,k}$ satisfies a
recurrence similar to that of $A_{n,k}$. In particular, it is not hard
to see that $\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n,k}=\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n-1,k}+\sum_{k\geq
0}A_{n-3,k}+\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n-4,k}$. Another known sequence with this
recurrence is $\alpha_n$ for $n\geq 0$: $$1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 15, 25,
40, 64, 104, \ldots$$ which makes $\sum_{k\geq 0}A_{n,k}=\alpha_{n+2}$
related to Fibonacci numbers:
$\alpha_n-\alpha_{n-4}=\alpha_{n-1}+\alpha_{n-3}=F_n$, and when $n$ is
even, $\alpha_{n}=F^2_{(n+2)/2}$, and when $n$ is odd,
$\alpha_{n}=F_{(n+1)/2}\cdot F_{(n+3)/2}$. Therefore, $$\sum_{k\geq
0}A_{n-2,k}=\alpha_{n}=\sum_{k=0}^{\lfloor n/2\rfloor }\sum_{r=\lceil
k/2\rceil}^
{\min\{k,\lfloor(n-k)/2\rfloor\}}C_{k-r}^rC_r^{n-k+r}=\left\{
\begin{array}{ll} F^2_{(n+2)/2} & n \textrm{ is even}\\
F_{(n+1)/2}\cdot F_{(n+3)/2} & n \textrm{ is odd} \end{array} \right.
$$
where the bounds in the summations can also be relaxed as described
above. The number $\alpha_{n}$ counts the subsets of
$\{1,2,\ldots,n\}$ in which all the chickens can be intimidated
simultaneously. This is beautiful when compared to $g_n$:
$$g_n=2^n\sum_{k=0}^{\lfloor n/2\rfloor} \sum_{r=\lceil
k/2\rceil}^{\min\{k,\lfloor (n-k)/2\rfloor\}}
C_{k-r}^rC_r^{n-k-r}\Big(-\frac{1}{4}\Big)^k= \left\{\begin{array}{ll}
[(n+2)/2]^2 & n \textrm{ is even}\\ (n+1)/2\cdot (n+3)/2 & n \textrm{
is odd} \end{array} \right. $$
If we now define $B_{n,k}$ as the number of orientations in which
exactly $k$ out of $n$ chickens are intimidated, then $B_{n,0}=g_n$,
$\sum_{k\geq 0}B_{n,k}=2^n$, and $\sum_{k>\lfloor
n/2\rfloor}B_{n,k}=0$. But what is $B_{n,k}$ for any given $n$ and
$k$? $B_{n,1}$ ($0,0,0,2,6,16,32,60,100,160,240,\ldots$) is related to
the number of non-palindromic reversible strings with $4$ black and
$n-5$ white beads. $B_{n,2}$ ($0,0,0,0,1,4,16,44,110,236,472,\ldots$)
is related to the number of bracelets with $1$ blue, $6$ identical
red, and $n$ identical black beads. $B_{n,2}$ and $B_{n,4}$
($0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,36,146,511,1512,\ldots$) are also related to parrafin numbers (page
1925) $l(9,n)$ and $l(13,n)$, respectively.